Gen. Micael Bydén, Swedish Air Force, the supreme commander of Sweden’s armed forces, discusses Trident Juncture, Russia in the Baltic, Finland’s raids on Russian properties, Sweden’s relationship with the US and the US Air Force’s decision to buy the TX by Boeing and SAAB with Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian in Washington, DC and then again at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, Canada. Our coverage at the 10th annual forum is sponsored by L3 Technologies and Leonardo DRS.
General Micael Bydén
Supreme Commander, Swedish Armed Forces
Halifax International Security Forum
November 2018
Vago Muradian: Welcome to the Defense and Aerospace Report. I’m Vago Muradian here in Washington, DC at the House of Sweden, Sweden’s embassy in the United States to talk to the Supreme Commander of Sweden’s Armed Forces, Michael Bydén. It’s always a pleasure seeing you, sir. Thank you very much for taking time out of your schedule to talk to us.
General Micael Bydén: The pleasure is mine. As always, good to see you.
Mr. Muradian: Great seeing you.
There are so many agenda items to talk about. First I want to start with the bilateral U.S.-Sweden relationship. You and your predecessor have focused on expanding that relationship, deepening it. There was the acquisition of Patriot missiles which was seen as a very big step. Aurora brought American and foreign troops on Swedish soil for the first time in centuries, and then you were also a participant recently in the massive Trident Juncture, NATO’s largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War.
What’s next in the strategic relationship? And I also want to ask you about the three-way partnership agreement between the U.S., Sweden and Finland, of course, that’s an important piece as well.
But let’s talk first on the bilateral side of the relationship.
General Bydén: I wouldn’t say that there is a huge new step. We will continue the way we have decided together. So we start by the statement of intent between the two countries signed by Secretary of Defense and my Minister of Defense. The five areas, you know them. So we have taken the next step to do it more deep and broad, I would say.
So a lot of exercises. Not least you mentioned Aurora, our big national exercise last year with a significant footprint from U.S. forces. We are heading for the next one, the National Exercise 2020, Aurora II, if I may, which will also be in the context of more civil defense.
But here, we will definitely have a close dialogue with content or what capabilities we would like to see from the U.S. part.
Just finalizing our part of Trident Juncture. For us, every single activity we do. It doesn’t matter if this would be an exercise or if it would be a meeting, we need to be relevant, whatever we do.
What it means being a small force here would be not taking too much of a piece of the cake; being very clear what we are able to do; and that’s what we need to deliver. Every single time, being the relevant partner.
Mr. Muradian: What’s next for the tripartheid agreement?
General Bydén: I would say it’s about the same. So we started out on the bilateral cooperation and now we are kind of, I would say we took a step back to start all over as a three-part — Sweden, Finland and the U.S. — and we are doing pretty good. But I mean you can’t just jump in where we are bilaterally. So you need to go back and start all over.
So we take it step by step. Again, a lot of it would be about training and exercises, of course, because what it’s all about is to strengthen our capabilities and strengthen them together.
Mr. Muradian: When it comes to capability development, some of those capabilities were tested recently at the Trident Juncture exercise. How would you assess where you are on the capability improvement project? Each one, as you said, each one of these exercises is also a self-assessment, a self-test, and the agenda was a remarkably ambitious one on the part of Sweden’s armed forces. Very small, after a long period of cutting you’re actually benefitting from some money and investment, but it’s at the beginning of the project. How do you rate the capabilities improvement and Sweden’s ability to deliver relevant capabilities to a big international operation like that?
General Bydén: A few statements here. I think you need to ask our partners because the truth would be in the eye of the beholder, how we are doing. But I know and I see, we are strengthening our national capabilities along with the ambition, along with the task even from government. But the reference would be ourselves.
And we also need to remember that we started at a fairly low level. A lot of years or a few years doing international missions, now back to national capabilities. So we started out low level, we take it step by step. I see it when we look at capabilities, how we are doing. The wartime organization, how we work, what we’re able to do.
I get good feedback from partners. I mean you are doing good. This is really, you add in these areas and we also know where we need to improve. So a lot of positive feedback here.
The support from society is great. Our relevance and the trust towards the armed forces is also growing, and we measure it, and this is also a very good result for me and something we now need to continue to do.
So we are taking it step by step. We need to remember, though, if we had one pace in our development like this, this is kind of how fast we go. But the surrounding world is faster or doing more, being stronger. The delta between our development and the other part of the world. If that is growing, that’s where the risk would be. And that’s not a risk for a military, for me as a supreme commander. This is a risk for my country.
Mr. Muradian: Let’s talk a little bit about some of those risks. You’ve watched Russia very carefully in your career. Early in your career and now again later in your career, and in between as well. You’re a former Chief of the Swedish Air Force. You and I when we spoke at [Linkoping] at the 90thAnniversary Conference, you know, Russian aircraft were operating in the Baltic without transponders. As part of Trident Juncture several of the Baltic nations have said that there was Russian jamming of GPS signals. Talk to us a little bit about that and how serious a potential problem something like that is.
General Bydén: So if we go back just a few years, and I used some hard words here and it was mentioned. I mean it was deliberate to do so. Because at that time —
Mr. Muradian: You called it stupid at the time.
General Bydén: Yeah. One of the words, and I used others as well. Because think about it. There were SIGINT aircraft from the Russian Air Force flying over Baltic Sea in international airspace, mid-level, kind of bad weather, not squawking. We don’t see them. And it’s in the same area we have a lot of civil air traffic. So we had a couple of incidents where it was very very close having a mid-air collision with a filled civilian airliner from Copenhagen going south to Europe. That’s when I used it. I mean it’s not only about them. It’s a risk for themselves. You risk civil people’s lives. So I think it is stupid, to use one word. So that was one example.
We had the behaviors both in there towards our SIGINT aircraft flying very close. We’ve seen it towards naval ships out on the Baltic Sea.
I wouldn’t say this has grown, that we see more, but often on and off it happens. And then we signal very clear we don’t accept this because it’s dangerous.
So we do that. We communicate it. I open up, or we open up for a communication line, so I’m able now to talk from my forces to the Russian forces if we have an incident. Because if you don’t handle an incident correctly, and you do it very careful, it could easily escalate.
So that would be one of the risks right now. A lot of military presence over the Baltics, meaning also the risk of incidents is greater than before. Then we need to be able to talk, have a dialogue, clearing what is this, what happened.
Mr. Muradian: And did you see any jamming? Was that a problem in this exercise?
General Bydén: I haven’t seen it. I know it’s been ongoing, but I don’t have anything to comment about it right now.
But this happens, another thing, at the exercises, not least Trident Juncture, and this is also a new way of operating for the Russians. They declare restriction areas within the exercise areas. Meaning they say we will be in this area from sea level up to quite high level, and we’ll do some testing, whatever it is. And international water and aerospace, we can’t say no. So it’s also a way now to interfere, to be there, to show presence, and also to, I mean to disturb an exercise like that.
Mr. Muradian: Are you satisfied, how do you assess, as you said, sort of the Russian behavior, sort of no more, no less in some respects. But one of the things that you’ve concerned yourself with is also hybrid operations. We saw Scandinavians for years have been talking about Russians buying or leasing properties and bases. We saw the Russians lease the former Norwegian submarine base, properties in Finland. Even Danes sometimes have said to me well, that’s kind of a curious thing. We saw Finland conduct a significant series of raids across the country against some of these Russian homes, I guess, with nine peers and very sophisticated communications equipment at them.
As the Supreme Commander of Sweden’s Armed Forces, a key part of the security of the region, certainly from an EU perspective, but increasingly in a partner in NATO sort of capacity, how do you assess that threat? Is it a significant threat? And what does it tell us about the ways the Russians may prosecute a future campaign that could be different from what we think it might look like?
General Bydén: Risk or threat or whatever it is, but it’s obvious that these are examples of what the Russians now are doing in the hybrid world or non-linear warfare. And working or acting in gray zones of peace and war.
I think the most important thing is to have the ability to translate the situation. What is this? Is it part of something greater? Because it’s not only the examples of such. It glues together.
This is not a task that we can solve on our own from the military side. So what we are looking at is to cooperate as close as possible nationally. I mean with civil society. People know things. People see things. They see when things change. They see behaviors. We need to get the information to be able to paint the picture and also to assess an analysis about what is this. And of course, we need to share and work together with the international partners.
I think that’s really the key right now. Why are they doing this? Is this part of something greater?
If we’re not able to do this. If we’re not able to take care of situations coming up, we need to figure out is it a task for the police or could we act?
The risk is that we could have a frozen conflict somewhere in our near surroundings and we don’t need that. So again, we need to understand what is happening right now, and you are pointing out a few very interesting things that are happening right now.
Mr. Muradian: Are some of these things happening in Sweden that you can comment on?
General Bydén: Well, the same things happen in Sweden as in other countries. I would say IT systems being, I mean intrusions in IT systems. That’s one thing that is happening. It happens to industry, to civil society, towards agencies. So that would be one part.
And we face the same challenges and behaviors as other countries are doing right now.
Mr. Muradian: Do you see, having watched Russia so closely and for so long, you’re a very very keen observer and over the years have made some very, very sophisticated observations on the progression of the capability and the threat. How do you rate the progression of the threat? Every six months when we talk, or so, either for an interview or if we run into each other, talk to us about how that’s changing. You know, there are a lot of snap exercises. We just saw the big Vostok Exercise. Not as big as they claim, but still very significant. You know, before that was [Zpod]. A whole series of snap exercises that happened even as you said, matched Trident Juncture. How do you see the evolution of Russian capabilities and what pieces of it in your mind stand out as being the most worrying in some respects?
General Bydén: They are taking very clear steps forward here, building their military capabilities. We never took our eyes and ears from what they are doing over a time also when we had more of a strategic time out. We were focused on international missions. So we have a good idea where they were and how far they have come. They spend a lot of economy and have done so the last few years, meaning when they started the transformation, the transition to build, you get, the effect is so even though they should stop putting money into it, you would see an effect because it takes some time. So we see them go further.
You mentioned snap exercises, big exercises. I mean from where they are based, gathering large units, transportation over long distances, they are capable to do that. We see them operate, as an example in Syria. They have taken quite a few steps to work like we are. I mean fast decision loops, go from identifying something to acting, to operate. So we see these happenings. And they are being better.
I will not go into details here. I will not be giving figures because I shouldn’t, but it’s something we look careful at and they take significant steps forward.
Mr. Muradian: Two questions. There is a Defense Commission, next year is going to be sort of charting out the next budgetary future for, and the strategic blueprint for Sweden’s forces for the coming years.
General Bydén: Yes.
Mr. Muradian: What do you want to see come out of that process? What is the kind of report you would like to see? What does the outcome have to be to continue this progression of improvement for Swedish military capability?
General Bydén: First of all there is no doubt, there is a broad consensus and understanding between the political parties, it doesn’t matter on what side you are, that we need to put more investments and value to security and defense. So having said that, it’s more like finding ambitions here.
So what we did, we launched a report in the beginning of this year when we look all the way until 2035, and with the best knowledge, experience and as an expert organization, we said this is an organization in 2035 that we need to meet the challenges, the risk, the threats. Of course, it’s a bigger organization than we have. To be very general, it’s about double size. It would also be more or less a double size of the budget from today. So we handed over this to the Commission and now they work it. The second report will be launched in May.
My expectation is they will launch a report with very clear ambitions where we need to be 2025 and 2035.
Mr. Muradian: And do you think that the budget support will be there? Because without the resources you’re not going to be able to do the improvement.
General Bydén: Yeah. I can not take anything for granted, but again, a broad political consensus that it’s needed tells me that the understanding is there and then they also need to make the decision. But that has to be decided and that’s something for the future.
Mr. Muradian: The very last question. Capability improvement. The Griffin E Model development is ongoing. It’s ambitious. A startling number of very big programs that are going on at the same time from a Swedish context. Indigenous fighter aircraft, the A-26 submarine, you have the Patriot. Give us sort of a sense of how A-26 and Griffin are going, and then what are the next series of major acquisitions, whether in partnership with the United States indigenously or with Europe?
General Bydén: Both the projects you mentioned, I mean both Griffin and the submarines are going along according to plan. The projects are running. It’s high sophisticated projects and capabilities, meaning there are always challenges when it comes to timings when it comes to requirements, and also when it comes to money. But this is an ongoing dialogue. But I have great hopes.
We just acquired and had the decisions for a [GBAD] system, meaning the Patriot. That was the bigger, the major acquisition right now. We do have a few needs but there are no decisions, but this has been pointed out in the report in the beginning of the year. Sensors would be one; command and control systems would be another, to give a couple of examples. But that’s an ongoing analysis and staffing to bring forward the best recommendation.
Mr. Muradian: And we’re continuing our interview with the Supreme Commander up here at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, Canada, because we didn’t get an opportunity to ask all of our questions when we were in Washington. So great to see you again, sir.
General Bydén: It’s great to see you, as always.
Mr. Muradian: One of the things I wanted to ask you was, Trident Juncture. We talked about it earlier in the interview, but what were some of the lessons learned from that, right? It’s still very, very fresh. What were some of the key lessons that you learned from that exercise and how that exercise also built on some of the lessons that you learned from Aurora where you played a massive host country role as well.
General Bydén: First of all, this was the highlight of exercises this year for the Swedish Armed Forces. It’s a huge NATO exercise in our immediate neighborhood. So it was obvious that we wanted to participate. We were invited. So the lessons learned there.
First of all, we had the opportunity to in practice try host nation support and how far we have come. We have this agreement with NATO. We had a few, quite a lot of vehicles here coming through the country. A few hundred from different countries. So that was the first part, lessons learned, take-away. Transportation through country to the area of operation. This time, from Europe up to Norway.
I would say the greatest or the most clear takeaways for me and my armed forces would be logistics. What does it take to move bigger units, big military units far distances to get them to the area. And the way that NATO and not least the host nation, Norway did that, that impresses me. They built a camp in the operation area to take care of 8,000 troops. Not only to survive there, but to live there and to eat and to train and exercise prior to the live exercise. I would say that’s one of the takeaways.
And then down to my unit level, the brigade fought on the Red side but also together with partners. A lot of confirmations. A lot of lessons learned when it comes down to how we work interoperability, communications, command and control, so this was, I would say it met our expectations and beyond.
Mr. Muradian: Was it fun to play the bad guy?
General Bydén: It’s always fun to prove that we, the way we use tactics at the brigade level, that it works. And we gave the other side a hard time, and we also came in as the relevant partner as we need to do. I would say that’s the most important part.
Mr. Muradian: The FMV, and let me ask this question because the Materiel Administration was one of the world’s most potent acquisition organizations certainly throughout the Cold War. Times changed. After the Cold War there was a dismantlement of the organization or shrinking of the organization. And then logistics functions went in and went out. There has been a reformation of FMV. As the Supreme Commander, how does that reformation and the change in logistics and maintenance, talk to us a little bit about that reform and what it means to you as the end user.
General Bydén: It means a lot. Meaning that now I am, together with my organization, we can take responsibility for equipment, for systems, for peacetime all the way to mobilization. That’s really the main difference from before, and it makes sense right now. I mean we lived a few years when we were supposed to save money, efficiency, just in time, but I mean what we see now in the development of the work, this is something else. National defense, being able to gather troops fast and to have control of equipment and so. So that’s the major change.
FMV will still be the procurement agency, so I will put requirements, being a good customer here. Go to FMV and they will do the procurement. They are specialists. They are very professional in doing so. The complex contracts, if I may.
Mr. Muradian: Griffin, A-26, et cetera.
General Bydén: Yeah. The major ones. Patriot. I mean economy, legal things. So they are, they will continue to be the professional procurement agency.
Mr. Muradian: But the logistics pieces. So how many people move into your organization now? Because you regain now maintenance of systems, but as well as the main logistics train which had gone into FMV for a while, before now it came back out.
General Bydén: So the restructuring will affect some 3,500 people. 1800 is coming back or coming to the armed forces from FMV and then we make adjustments in our own organization. So 3,500 will be affected, and 1800 will come from FMV to the defense forces.
Mr. Muradian: Just from a threat perspective, two last questions. From a threat perspective, what should Washington understand about the distances involved here? Because in the United States, a two-and-a-half-hour flight is a short flight, whereas in Europe it’s something far more dramatic. You recently visited the Ukraine. Give us sort of a sense to sort of focus Americans on the distances we’re dealing with and how quickly threats can evolve and be right on your doorstep?
General Bydén: Sure. We often talk about 2008 and the Russian aggression or invasion to Georgia. That was kind of the awakening. I would say our real awakening came 2014, the illegal annexation of Crimea, continuous fighting in Eastern Ukraine, Donbas area.
I was in Ukraine last fall, October last year. It’s a flight from Stockholm, our capital, is two hours fifteen minutes to Kyiv, the Ukraine capital. Same flight as down to Brussels. From Kyiv I entered a turboprop aircraft, flew east, southeast for an hour. That’s a shorter flight than from Stockholm up to
Luleå. Then I was on the contact line. The confrontation line where it’s a war going on. We don’t see much reporting in Sweden, but it’s very close. It’s an environment that looks like on the one hand, like First War I scenario. Trenches, soldiers in trenches shooting at each other. But also, on the other hand, we see usage of new technology — unmanned vehicles, electronic warfare, strategic communications is really something that drives —
Mr. Muradian: Cyber.
General Bydén: Absolutely. Every day. And again, it’s close to Sweden. It’s close to us. That has definitely had an affect and also an awareness that things could happen, and when it happens, it goes fast.
Mr. Muradian: Congratulations on the TX win. Obviously Saab teamed with Boeing. A big victory to supply the next trainer to the United States Air Force. At the time this was born you were Chief of the Swedish Air Force. There are people who didn’t think that a brand new airplane, designed from scratch from the requirement would win. You did.
How does this change the strategic relationship between the United States and Sweden at the end of the day? Right? It’s a warming relationship. We talked about, you know, your job kind of coming in and constantly building and expanding that relationship.
How does that change things? And what do you see for the future? Is this the airplane that the Swedish Air Force is going to buy to replace its aging training aircraft that you and so many generations of aviators learned to fly on?
General Bydén: First of all about relations here. I would say this is another great example of very close cooperation and relations. I would also say this is a feather in the hat for our defense industry, being able to, together with one of the major defense industries in U.S. develop something from the beginning and it turns out to be the winner. I think this is great.
So thank you for the congratulations. It should go to defense industry.
Take it to the next step then. Will this be the future trainer for the Swedish Air Force? I would say it’s too early to say. We have, it’s obvious we need to have a new platform or system. At least a new system to train our pilots because our trainer right now is old. It’s been there since late ‘60s.
Of course with this outcome, it’s definitely one of the alternatives, but it’s too early for me to say. We follow this very closely, and I congratulate Saab and Boeing.
Mr. Muradian: How much, I know the Defense Commission is going to come out next year, but is there a figure that if you could give them a number for what you need to do this massive job, how many crowns do you need for the job of rebuilding the Swedish military, getting its capabilities up to the level that’s going to be required from a national defense but also from an international participation standpoint? Is there a figure that you have in your head to do this massive job?
General Bydén: I will definitely try to answer. I will not give a figure.
But when we, our report to the Defense Commission, our perspective study that was we sent that in in February. We look at 2035. What we see, to have the relevant organization with the capabilities that we in our analysis say this is what we need, also take into account or consideration technology development, it’s like a double-size organization in reference for today. I would also say the budget would be about the double size to be able to develop it and also sustain operations. So that gives you an idea. This is my best assessment to the political level. How far you are ready to go I don’t know. So it’s 2035, but we’re also looking at 2025. That would be the first step.
But 2035, double size organization. About double the size budget.
Mr. Muradian: General Micael Bydén, the Supreme Commander of Sweden’s Armed Forces, it’s always a pleasure talking to you, sir, and getting a chance to talk to you twice in two different countries in one week is pretty good. Thanks, sir.
General Bydén: Thank you very much.
30
