Welcome to the CavasShips Podcast with Christopher P. Cavas and Chris Servello…a weekly podcast looking at naval and maritime events and issues of the day – in the US, across the seas and around the world. This week…Keeping an eye on the dragon. What is the Chinese Navy up to? What are their capabilities? We’ll hear some of the latest views on the People’s Liberation Army Navy from Rear Admiral (retired) Mike Studeman, former commander of the US Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence.
Please send us feedback by DM’ing @CavasShips or @CSSProvision or you can email chriscavas@gmail.com or cservello@defaeroreport.com.
This Week’s Naval News:
The Ukrainian-owned bulk carrier VERBENA was hit by two Houthi-launched anti-ship cruise missiles June 13 in the Gulf of Aden, severely injuring one crew member and causing damage and fires. A subsequent single-missile attack on the 13th also struck the VERBENA and caused minor damage. At last report the ship’s crew had contained the fires and the vessel was still underway. Earlier, on June 12, a Houthi unmanned explosive surface vessel struck the Liberian-flagged bulker TUTOR in the Red Sea; the TUTOR reported the USV hit the bulker’s stern and caused partial flooding. While there have been multiple Houthi USV attacks, this was the first report of a successful engagement. Intelligence analyst Martin Kelly noted on social media the sharp increase during June in Houthi attacks on merchant shipping in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea with 9 attacks so far, equaling the total from May. Even more, the accuracy of those attacks has greatly improved – since June 8 four of four Houthi missile attacks on shipping have scored hits.
A four-ship Russian naval squadron arrived in Havana, Cuba June 12 to begin a five-day port visit. While Russian naval ships in the past have routinely called at Havana, the formation, which included frigate ADMIRAL GORSHKOV, oiler AKADEMIK PASHIN and oceangoing tug NIKOLAI CHIKER, unusually included a submarine – the nuclear-powered Yasen-class guided missile submarine KAZAN. Russia’s defense minister said the visit is unofficial and is meant to allow the ship’s crews to “rest and get acquainted with local attractions.” Responding to reporters questions, a Pentagon spokesperson said the visit by the Russian ships does not pose a threat to the United States. But at least three US Navy destroyers were shadowing the Russians, the Pentagon confirmed, and in an apparent response, the US submarine HELENA put in to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba on June 13 in a move publicized by US Southern Command on social media. HELENA has only recently returned to sea after having been essentially out of service for years awaiting or undergoing repairs. Canada also announced the offshore patrol ship MARGARET BROOKE would visit Havana from June 14 to 17, overlapping with the Russian naval visit.
China’s new carrier FUJIAN returned to Shanghai June 11 from a second series of sea trials. The ship left her builder’s yard at Jiangnan May 23 for at least 18 days underway. The second series of trials were completed just short of two years since the carrier was launched in June 2022.
A Dutch frigate operating in the East China Sea was buzzed June 10 by two Chinese warplanes, the Netherlands Defence Ministry said. Two Chinese JH-7 jet fighters and a Z-19 helicopter flew around the frigate TROMP and closely approached the frigate’s NH90 helicopter in flight, the Dutch said, creating what they called “a potentially unsafe situation.” The Dutch statement added the incident took place in international airspace.
US-led Valiant Shield exercises continued taking place in the South China and Philippine Seas during mid-June. Two major groups of warships are taking part – the first, centered on the carrier USS RONALD REAGAN, was operating in the Philippine Sea, while the second, formed around carrier USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT, was operating in the South China Sea. Warships from Japan, France and Canada also are taking part.
The Coast Guard cutter [Way-she] WAESCHE left Pohang, South Korea June 11 after a port visit. The California-based national security cutter is in the midst of a western Pacific deployment.
And the Coast Guard icebreaker HEALY left Seattle June 12 to begin a summer deployment to the Arctic. The mission includes supporting the Arctic Observing Network, a transit of the Northwest Passage and an effort to make the first ever single ship, single season, high-resolution transect of hydrographic observations across the Arctic basin. The Coast Guard did not announce the deployment’s duration, although last year’s Arctic cruise lasted five months.
The Baltimore, Maryland ship channel fully reopened June 10 to its original operating dimensions of 700 feet wide and a depth of 50 feet. The channel was at first closed on March 26 after the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed after it was hit by the containership DALI, and over subsequent weeks smaller channels have gradually been opened as a Unified Command effort cleared bridge debris and moved the DALI. The channel reopening allowed the amphibious ship FORT LAUDERDALE and destroyer GONZALES to enter the Port of Baltimore on June 12 in time for Baltimore’s Fleet Week.
Servello Squawk:
Chris that was a great session w/ Rear Admiral Studeman. Because of his Indo-Pacom and intel experience he is someone who has a sober and clear view of where the Chinese are and more importantly where we need to be if we actually hope to deter and — God forbid win a future conflict.
There were three important points from the Admiral’s comments that hit home with me:
– Victory is not guaranteed
– We need to grow in order to be prepared and get better
– and only the Chinese leader knows when they will move on Taiwan
As we listen to policy makers and service leaders these points seem to be lost on them.
If they weren’t, then the battle of the budget would never outweigh a potential battle in the South China sea. There would be less delay and more action…less ambiguity and more uninhibited discussion of what service leaders need now and in the future.
History tells us that even the most costly build up and leap forward in capability will be cheaper than the dollars spent and lives lost in conflict.
My hope is that those is a position to quickly move the Navy and the nation forward will listen to this pod and perhaps more importantly buy the admiral’s book on leadership.
Right now one of the weakest links in the thought and preparation chain on dealing with China is the recognition that we are behind and the opportunities to catch up are quickly slipping away.
It’s time for leaders to step up and lead us to a greater position of strength.
