Welcome to the CavasShips Podcast with Christopher P. Cavas and Chris Servello…a weekly podcast looking at naval and maritime events and issues of the day – in the US, across the seas and around the world. This week…with a new Congress headed to Washington what are some of the top priorities? Republican Representative Mike Gallagher, among others wants to swing more support to building up not just the Navy, but the missiles, bombs and bullets the fleet will need should deterrence fail. He’ll join us for a detailed discussion.
Please send us feedback by DM’ing @CavasShips or @CSSProvision or you can email chriscavas@gmail.com or cservello@defaeroreport.com.
This Week’s Naval Round Up:
In war news, an apparent attack October 29 by Ukrainian so-called kamikaze speed boat drones on the Russian naval base at Sevastopol, Crimea seems to have done little actual damage – but video from the boats has caused intense interest. The videos showed the boats maneuvering at high speed while Russian attack helicopters were shooting at them. The Russian frigate ADMIRAL MAKAROV, among other warships, apparently was a target of the attack. Russian reports accused Ukraine of using marine unmanned vehicles for a terrorist attack aided by British experts. Russia also said that while the attack was repelled it also caused minor damage.
The Russian cruiser VARYAG and destroyer ADMIRAL TRIBUTS apparently are headed home to their Pacific Fleet base at Vladivostok after months of operations in the Mediterranean. The VARYAG and sisterships MOSKVA in the Black Sea Fleet and MARSHAL USTINOV from the Northern Fleet converged in the eastern Med in February as the Russians built up their forces to invade Ukraine. MOSKVA was sunk in April by a Ukrainian missile attack, while the other two cruisers operated in the Mediterranean. MARSHAL USTINOV left the area in August to return to her northern fleet base. VARYAG and ADMIRAL TRIBUTS were in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka by November 2 accompanied by the oiler BORIS BUTOMA.
In the White Sea off northwest Russia about November 2 the new Borey-A strategic missile submarine GENERALISSIMUS SUVOROV launched a Bulava ballistic missile during sea trials. The launch was carried out while the SUVOROV was submerged. The Russian Tass News Agency claimed that multiple warheads hit targets on the Kura training ground on the Kamchatka Peninsula.
The US strategic missile submarine USS RHODE ISLAND arrived at Gibraltar on November 1, another in an increasing number of public port visits by deployed US Navy ballistic missile submarines. The visits are a deliberate effort by US military commanders to signal deployed American nuclear strike assets.
The aircraft carrier USS GERALD R FORD was at Halifax, Nova Scotia October 28 to November 1 for its first international port call. The carrier was accompanied by multiple ships from her escort group, including frigates from Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain and Germany. British media revealed this week that the carrier’s next port of call will be at Portsmouth, England during mid-November. The visits of the FORD are attracting widespread interest in Canada and in Europe.
In the Mediterranean, the deployed carrier USS GEORGE H W BUSH arrived at Split, Croatia November 3 for a port visit, while her escorting cruiser USS LEYTE GULF arrived at Dubrovnik on October 31. Croatia is a regular port of call for US Navy ships in the region, who often carry out maintenance while in the country.
And the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force is marking its 70th Anniversary with an international fleet review. The event will take place on November 6 Japanese time with ships from at least 14 nations taking part. Multiple heads of Navy also are in attendance, including US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday.
Cavas Squawk:
As we’ve just heard from Congressman Gallagher, the need for the US military to buy more weapons has — if one is to believe the dire warnings coming from a plethora of top defense leaders — never been greater. There are clear signals from without and within that President Xi Jinping’s China is on an aggressive path that could lead to serious armed conflict, especially as the Chinese are growing increasingly confident that sometime soon they can take on and win in a war against the United States.
We’ve been warning of the need to build up the Navy and not throw away existing ships simply because they are not what current planners envision as what’s needed in the future. Some of those ships are truly worn out – and that includes some of the cruisers. But others, especially nearly-new littoral combat ships with hardly any serious sea time under their keels, should not be budget-cutting disposal items.
What we’ve seen from the Navy and Pentagon leaders is an unwillingness to adapt existing assets into more useful platforms that can harry and threaten Chinese intentions. A great example are littoral combat ships armed with the Naval Strike Missile – an advanced cruise missile that the Chinese clearly see as a distinct threat. LCSs deployed to the western Pacific with NSM routinely draw not just the usual Chinese tail – a warship that closely watches the LCS throughout regions in the South China Sea and elsewhere. The Chinese double and even triple that tail to trapse around the Pacific following just one little old LCS. That’s a drain on their resources and efforts. The US does not publicize this, for reasons that frankly are elusive. But that NSM-armed LCS is a good example of a low-cost, existing asset that can strongly signal a US intention to not let China run unchallenged throughout the western Pacific.
The LCSs exist now, but the Navy and top Pentagon leadership are intent on disposing about half the existing fleet. This is incredibly shortsighted. So what if they didn’t work as originally intended 20 years ago? They’re here now, paid for and delivered and in service. Find something useful to do with them now, don’t just throw them away for assets that won’t be operationally available until the 2030s.
And buy more missiles. Now. The history of modern warfare is conclusive in that when real shooting begins, ammunition expenditure is always far higher than pre-war budgets planned for. The lesson is on display every day in Ukraine, where Russia – assumed to have vast quantities of munitions of all types – is scratching and scrambling to keep pounding Ukraine with anything at hand.
The US, along with other NATO allies, is sending to Ukraine large quantities of existing munitions, which so far are largely of the land-launched type. But US magazines will need to be replenished, and that’s going to add to the industrial capacity problem. Throw in a similar effort to increase arms shipments to Taiwan and the problem grows still more.
The ships and aircraft now in service with the US need ammunition to throw at the enemy. Ships and planes without missiles, bombs and bullets are just ships and planes. As you’ve heard, it can take several years to produce just one modern missile.
This week I listened to Admiral Chas Richard, commander of US Strategic Command, issue a blunt and declarative warning.
“This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup,” Richard said. “The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested a long time.”
Whatever happens with the November election, the new US Congress and the Biden Administration need to work together to provide a massive infusion of munitions to arm the US military. And oh by the way — stop throwing away perfectly good ships because you can’t think of anything else to do with them.
