International security events – the capture of Kabul by the Taliban or the recent test flight of the Chinese hypersonic missile – invariably attract commentary on the efficacy of available intelligence and the mantra ‘intelligence failures’ is rolled out by media, military leaders and politicians alike to explain why events were not predicted. By their very nature, intelligence assessments are subject to rigorous review and tradecraft standards that can dilute their impact, but equally, there is simply not enough available governmental intelligence resource to monitor and assess every global threat in today’s complex security environment. When the shroud of secrecy and security protocols are added to the mix, it is perhaps unsurprising that the intelligence community receives more than its fair share of criticism.
However, help is at hand, provided the intelligence environment is prepared to adapt and embrace new technologies. Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT), provides an alternative, extremely rich source of potentially valuable information that can augment and in some cases even replace more traditional intelligence sources. At the very least, OSINT can provide foundational insight, situational context, save considerable time and thereby, allow the multi-source analyst to focus more on the value-added ‘judgement’ that will always be needed in decision-support.
Often misconstrued as the scraping of social media (both through overt and covert means), OSINT is actually a much broader concept and includes the analysis of all trusted information that is publicly or commercially available to anyone. That could include high resolution imagery and video in all its forms, publications, media outlets, interviews, personal observations et al, much of which is directly accessible through internet. With over 5 billion people on-line able to access over 1200 petabytes of data, there is no shortage of information. All this data can add value to the intelligence community – not just as a gap filler but it can provide near-real-time reporting of world events, through indicators and warnings of emerging threats to foundational intelligence that provides the essential building blocks for the analyst. OSINT can also provide greater access, vastly improve our ability to share information and gain insights. Sharing data across the aisle with our partners will increase insights, perspectives, and ultimately improve our intelligence understanding.
The utility of this rich source of data is beginning to permeate into the national security narrative and is increasingly recognized at leadership levels, which is a positive sign, but its benefits have not yet been fully harnessed, and it is not yet a core element of the intelligence specialization. The reasons for this are both institutional and cultural. Inflexible and outdated technologies take too long to adapt to these new paradigms; and while time-honored intelligence tradecraft must continue to mitigate the risks of adopting new and potentially erroneous data, it must also overcome a lack of agility in current methodologies to embrace the volume and velocity of the open-source environment.
In short, we propose that OSINT be considered differently. Instead of it being a complimentary or comparative source, why not use it as the initiator, the foundation of our intelligence understanding? The sheer magnitude of open-source data has the potential to vastly increase the completeness of our data set and thereby, comprehension of the battlespace. If we learn to sift the good from the bad, and we can, then the next step is to accelerate our foundational understanding and more by leveraging as much of the data as possible.
In an increasingly competitive world, we can be sure that our adversaries will be exploiting OSINT to great effect, probably with fewer policy or process restrictions, and less bound by legacy technology applications. To maintain our advantage, we must therefore build on burgeoning innovative data analytic techniques and embrace OSINT as a mainstream tool in mitigating risk, decreasing the time to reach a broader foundational intelligence understanding, and transforming the landscape of traditional intelligence analysis.
Terry Busch was Chief Technology Officer for the DefenseIntelligence Agency’s (DIA) High Priority Machine-Assisted Rapid Repository Program (MARS) and Chief Data Officer at DIA, leading the development of AI-based capabilities. He also held roles within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and is a member of Janes National Security Advisory Board.
Sean Corbett is the founder of and CEO of IntSight Global and Chairman of Janes National Security Advisory Board. He retired from the Royal Air Force in September 2018 as a two-star general after a 30-year career as a professional intelligence officer. He was the first Non-US Deputy Director of a major US Intelligence Agency.
Harry Kemsley is president of national security and government at Janes. Prior to joining Janes, he spent 25 years in the Royal Air Force, where he took command of No. 5 (Army Cooperation) Squadron, with over 350 men and women from all three services, and led the squadron’s inaugural operational deployment into Afghanistan.